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Simulation-Based Analysis of the Potential of Alternative Fuels towards Reducing CO2 Emissions from Aviation

ORCID
0000-0002-8571-3805
Affiliation
Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production
Kieckhäfer, Karsten;
GND
1151533300
Affiliation
Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production
Quante, Gunnar;
GND
114878540X
Affiliation
Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production
Müller, Christoph;
ORCID
0000-0002-0212-1899
Affiliation
Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production
Spengler, Thomas Stefan;
Affiliation
Institute of Transportation Design, Hochschule für Bildende Künste Braunschweig
Lossau, Matthias;
GND
107023513X
Affiliation
Institute of Transportation Design, Hochschule für Bildende Künste Braunschweig
Jonas, Wolfgang

The mid-term framework of global aviation is shaped by air travel demand growth rates of 2–5% p.a. and ambitious targets to reduce aviation-related CO2 emissions by up to 50% until 2050. Alternative jet fuels such as bio- or electrofuels can be considered as a potential means towards low-emission aviation. While these fuels offer significant emission reduction potential, their market success depends on manifold influencing factors like the maturity of the production technology or the development of the price of conventional jet fuel. To study the potential for adoption of alternative jet fuels in aviation and the extent to which alternative fuels can contribute to the reduction targets, we deploy a System Dynamics approach. The results indicate that the adoption of alternative fuels and therefore their potential towards low-emissions aviation is rather limited in most scenarios considered since current production processes do not allow for competitive prices compared to conventional jet fuel. This calls for the development of new production processes that allow for economic feasibility of converting biomass or hydrogen into drop-in fuels as well as political measures to promote the adoption of alternative fuels.

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