Bread, peace and the attrition of power : Economic events and German election results

Batool, Irem; Sieg, Gernot

Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income and the attrition of power, especially when the Federal Chancellor sought re-election more than twice. Similar to earlier results for the US, each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately 4 percentage points in votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model.

Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income and the attrition of power, especially when the Federal Chancellor sought re-election more than twice. Similar to earlier results for the US, each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately 4 percentage points in votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model.

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Batool, Irem / Sieg, Gernot: Bread, peace and the attrition of power. Economic events and German election results. Braunschweig 2008. Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre.

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